Hurricane predictors admit they can’t predict hurricanes. Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no value. Remember when forecasters predicted an increase in the number of hurricanes due to global warming? No doubt the inability to predict hurricanes is another proof/sign/effect of it.
This post was last modified on December 13, 2011
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My weather prediction for the next 6-9 months: in the Northern Hemisphere, cold and continued cold until March when there will be a gradual warming trend. The warming trend should peak in July and August, with a gradual decline in temperatures beginning late in August and through September.
Wasn't it a Carlin bit: "Tonight's forecast - dark. Followed by continuing dark...gradually getting brighter towards dawn!"
So, their "predictions" have zero success, and a documented zero relationship with reality. You cannot depend upon their accuracy, and yet they get paid. Their blowing-smoke-up-peoples-asses foo is unmatched.
Clearly, they have jobs at the Barry Administration as czars.
The way to tell? They will apply for grants to see why it is so inaccurate. The donk answer is "we need more money and time to study the problem" in all situations like this.
And yet they will use all this as proof that they are right and to enact laws on a global level to "compell" nations to establish processes to counteract and crash economies.
Even our local weatherman has enought sense to know he cannot predict what will happen next week, he has a reasonable guess and says so.
The woolyworms in the forest changed colors a little early this year, which means we will have a cold, wet winter in our little part of the world. I learned this little fact on my grandfathers knee and 9 out of 10 years it proves right. I'll go with Poor Richards Almanac and the woolyworm before I listen to some over educated fool with a computer.
Farmer's Almanac also does a better job prediciting weather up to a year in advance than your local Meteorologists. They just don't have an App for that! :(
This is something I can predict:
Today, mostly sunny with a 90% chance of candor. Tomorrow, a 100% chance of record high pressure readings, PC winds blowing from the mouth at 75-100 mph and employment termination for honesty. The 7-day forecast: 100% chance of a chilling effect due to circulating internal memos threatening any forecasters who dare to be honest.
Yet they can forecast what the weather will be like in 25-75 years?
25-75 years? They can barely hit a 5 day forcast most of the time.
To be fair, there is difference between predicting specific weather events and predicting overall climate. Related, but different. The questions are, Is long-term climate prediction any more accurate than short-term climate prediction? and of course about a hundred more relating to shenanigans and following the money.
That's correct.
When there is no change in the temperature averages over 10 or 15 years, that's just "weather". When the polar icecap grows back 3 million square miles of ice over 10 or 15 years, that's just "weather".
But when a tornado happens in Kansas, that's "climate change". When a hurricane makes landfall on the gulf coast, that's "climate change". When 24" of snow falls in the NE US in February, that's "climate change". When it's 98 degrees for 3 days in July, that too, is "climate change".
Got it?