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Do the Math: Rasmussen party affiliation survey bodes well for Romney

Do the Math: Rasmussen party affiliation survey bodes well for Romney. Take a gander at Rasmussen’s history of Party affiliation – the numbers for Aug 2012 are R-37.6%, D-33.3%, I-29.2%. In November 2008, it was R-33.8%, D-41.4% and I-24.7%. This is basically a +12 pt swing to the Rs and an even bigger spread in favor of R than November 2010 (R-36%, D-34.7%), when the Dems lost 63 seats in Congress.

A lot of media polls showing Obama slightly ahead have a sample similar to 2008’s. What would the results be if they used the current Rasmussen sample? Do the math: let’s simplify a little and assume Obama gets all the D voters, Romney gets all the R and they split the I’s (Obama won the I’s in 2008 but no matter for the illustration.) Using the 2008 sample, we get Obama with 53.8% of the vote and Romney with 46.2%, pretty close to the actual result.

Using the 2012 sample, we get Romney 51.2% and Obama 47.9%, again remembering we are SPLITTING INDIES DOWN THE MIDDLE (Carville claims Romney is up by 16 with them!) If Carville is right, the numbers would look even better – our calculator shows Romney at 54.5%, Obama 45.5%.

The MSM is putting out a lot of propaganda to try and make it seem like Obama is a lock, but there are plenty of signs to the contrary. We have to say if Rasmussen is anywhere NEAR right about party affiliation, Romney’s chances are much better than they will admit.

This post was last modified on September 8, 2012

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Bonfire of the Absurdities: After 35 year career writing software for IBM mainframes, am now self-employed contractor thinking of joining a union and striking for higher wages. Cured morbid fear of heights when I learned to look at them as lengths standing on end. Uncompromising in refusal to accept browser cookies. Amateur investor who has accumulated a small fortune in the market after starting out years ago with a large one. For recreation, I run, hike, kayak and play tennis but will not consider synchronized swimming under any circumstances.

View Comments (4)

drb says:

September 8, 2012 at 3:21 pm

That's a lot of math...you know libs suck at math.
Fenster314 says:

September 8, 2012 at 2:05 pm

Whatever. I've contributed to Romney and several senators necessary to overturn Obamacare in the Senate. I suggest everyone who cares about the country do so as well.

Next time you may not have the option - if you want your loved one to get that operation okay-ed by a AHA board - it might not be a good idea to show up on the lists as making contributions to the wrong people.
Ruben says:

September 8, 2012 at 12:30 pm

Math is fun!

And don't underestimate the electoral presence of Reag... er, uh, Romney Democrats.
Bonfire of the Absurdities says:

September 8, 2012 at 12:07 pm

The methodology here is simple: pretend we are talking about a nice round number of votes, like 1,000. Thus, if a candidate's party affiliation sample says he were to get 31% of those, he would have 310 votes. The indies are done similarly: if there are 300 indy votes, getting half would mean another 150, for a total for 460. This makes the percentage easy to calculate - getting 460 votes out of a possible 1,000 gives him 46%, a likely loser. The numbers don't add up exactly to 1,000 because of rounding error (I just dropped the stragglers) but it's close enough to make the point.