Do the Math: Rasmussen party affiliation survey bodes well for Romney. Take a gander at Rasmussen’s history of Party affiliation – the numbers for Aug 2012 are R-37.6%, D-33.3%, I-29.2%. In November 2008, it was R-33.8%, D-41.4% and I-24.7%. This is basically a +12 pt swing to the Rs and an even bigger spread in favor of R than November 2010 (R-36%, D-34.7%), when the Dems lost 63 seats in Congress.
A lot of media polls showing Obama slightly ahead have a sample similar to 2008’s. What would the results be if they used the current Rasmussen sample? Do the math: let’s simplify a little and assume Obama gets all the D voters, Romney gets all the R and they split the I’s (Obama won the I’s in 2008 but no matter for the illustration.) Using the 2008 sample, we get Obama with 53.8% of the vote and Romney with 46.2%, pretty close to the actual result.
Using the 2012 sample, we get Romney 51.2% and Obama 47.9%, again remembering we are SPLITTING INDIES DOWN THE MIDDLE (Carville claims Romney is up by 16 with them!) If Carville is right, the numbers would look even better – our calculator shows Romney at 54.5%, Obama 45.5%.
The MSM is putting out a lot of propaganda to try and make it seem like Obama is a lock, but there are plenty of signs to the contrary. We have to say if Rasmussen is anywhere NEAR right about party affiliation, Romney’s chances are much better than they will admit.
