If there’s one thing we’ve learned in recent years, it’s that hurricanes aren’t very predictable, but hurricane prognosticators are.
Year in and year out, the “experts” predict that this will be a major hurricane season. As Reuters reports, his year is no different:
The Atlantic storm season could produce as many as 14 hurricanes this year, the U.S. government’s top climate agency predicted on Thursday, setting the scene for potentially the most intense season since 2005.
In its first forecast for the storm season that begins next Tuesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast 14 to 23 named storms, with 8 to 14 developing into hurricanes, making it one of the most active ever.
Three to 7 of those could be major Category 3 or above hurricanes, with winds of more than 110 miles per hour (177 km per hour), the agency said, echoing earlier predictions from meteorologists for a particularly severe season that could disrupt U.S. oil, gas and refinery operations in the Gulf of Mexico.
Sooner or later, the “experts” have to be right. But we are issuing our official annual prediction that this won’t be the year.
Source: Reuters
This post was last modified on January 26, 2021
View Comments (6)
All it takes is one and we are in trouble, so who cares what the predictions are. THat is simply fear mongering, as there is nothing we can do about it anyway. Have some sense, be prepared and if the tell you to evacuate, get the h#%^ out!
Also, I would say we already have some serious disruption of the oil, gas and refinery operations in the Gulf.
I agree with you, Deb. Here in the SC area of Hurricane Alley, most of us don't bother listening to the predictions--we listen to the radio when storms start coming in and stay prepared to get mobile.
Yeah, but this time it's true. The earth is so pissed about the way GW broke up Al and Tipper's romance by stealing the 2000 election, it's getting ready to open a HUUUUGE can of whoopass on us. :)
Seriously, someone needs to go back to each of these pre-season predictions over the last 10-20 years and compare them to reality. Saddly, the general public eats this stuff up, and over time the predictions get cemented in their minds as reality.
Another related annual event in California is the fire season predictions. If it's been a dry year, the prediction is that it will be a really bad fire season because the vegetation is so dry. If it's been a wet year, the prediction is that it will be a really bad fire season because with all the water, there's lots of excess fuel.
And we thought the US military invented "shock and awe"? The press perfected the tactic long ago.
Remind me...When was the last GOOD hurricane season ?
good point.... a hurricaine is a hurricaine is a hurricaine.
I would love to be a weatherman. You can be wrong 95% of the time and still get paid.
It's funny how they quote all this 'exact' science, when all it really is...is just a big guesswork game.