They say a month is an eternity in politics, so two years is … uhhh … even longer. Nevertheless, it looks like the Democrats face some big, big problems in 2012.
They’ll have to defend 23 Senate seats compared to only ten for the Republicans. And to make matters even worse, the Republican seats all seem relatively safe while nearly half of the Democrat seats could be in jeopardy.
Bottom line: Democrats will lose even more ground in 2012 and Republicans will take firm control of the Senate.
Here’s a quick review of what the future may hold.
Safe Democrats seats (also includes two Independents who caucus with the Democrats):
1. Dianne Feinstein of California (Feinstein will be 79 years old and has more money than God. Even if she doesn’t run, California should be a safe state for the Democrats)
2. Tom Carper of Delaware (Got 70% of the vote in 2006. Even if rumored health problems knock him out of the race, Delaware will probably elect another Democrat)
3. Ben Cardin of Maryland (This seems like a pretty safe seat, but Cardin only managed 54% of the vote in 2006 against moronic Michael Steele. If the Republicans can find a strong candidate, this seat could be vulnerable.)
4. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota (Seems popular and no strong Republicans seem to be waiting in the wings.)
5. Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico (Got 71% of the vote in 2006. Probably one of those safe Democrat seats.)
6. Ken Conrad of North Dakota (Got 69% of the vote in 2006. Likely another safe Democrat seat.)
7. Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania (Destroyed Rick Santorum in 2006. No reason to think he won’t repeat in 2012.)
8. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island (Got nearly 54% of the vote against a well-known Republican incumbent in 2006. No reason to think wacky Rhode Island voters will send him packing now.)
9. Maria Cantwell of Washington (Seems to be a safe seat in left wing Washington.)
10. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (Quirky Lieberman will be 70 in 2012, but remains popular in the state. Will probably win reelection if he runs. Republicans will be working on him to officially switch the the Republican party the day the 2010 elections beginning on November 3.)
11. Bernie Sanders of Vermont (Lunatic socialist who probably hasn’t voted with the Republicans once since he joined the Senate. Safe Independent (read: Democrat) seat.)
12. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York (Democrats will probably hold onto the seat. Stranger things have happened than a Republican winning in New York, but we can’t think of any off the top of our heads.)
13. Joe Manchin of West Virginia (Manchin is probably the most popular politician in America. There’s no reason to think the guy who won this seat in 2010 won’t repeat in 2012.)
Questionable Democrat seats
1. Bill Nelson of Florida (might be vulnerable to a run by Jeb Bush)
2. Daniel Akaka of Hawaii (Akaka will be 88 friggin’ years old in 2012, but can anyone remember the last Republican senator from Hawaii? That being said, if Akaka decides to retire, popular but termed-out Republican Governor Linda Lingle might be able to give any other Democrats a run for their money.)
3. Debbie Stanenow of Michigan (No genius, she. A poll taken in March, 2010 indicated that she’d be in for a tough race if former Governor John Engler chooses to run against her.)
4. Claire McCaskill of Missouri (Was first elected in 2006 with less than 50% of the vote and has never been particularly popular with her constituents.)
5. Jon Tester of Montana (Also won election in 2006 with less than 50% of the vote. Could be vulnerable if Montana Republicans can find a strong candidate.)
6. Ben Nelson of Nebraska (Perhaps one of the most vulnerable Democrats. Republicans are lining up to oppose him after his ObamaCare “Cornhusker Kickback” fiasco.)
7. Bob Menendez of New Jersey (Menendez has never really been embraced by his constituents and he’ll be fighting a Chris Christie-inspired, anti-incumbent, anti-corruption, anti-tax and spend mood in New Jersey.)
8. Sherrod Brown of Ohio (Vulnerable in increasingly conservative Ohio. Got 56% of the vote in 2006 against a Republican opponent weakened by scandal.)
9. Jim Webb of Virginia (Squeaked out a victory by a razor-thin six-tenths of one percent in 2006. Republican George Allen is making noises about a rematch, which makes Webb very vulnerable.)
10. Herb Kohl of Wisconsin (Kohl will be 77 when 2012 rolls around. If he runs for reelection, he probably wins. If he doesn’t run, young gun Republican Congressman Paul Ryan is waiting in the wings.)
Safe Republican Seats
Remarkably, every Republican seats up for grabs in 2012 seem to be safe. Some incumbents may face strong primary challenges, but they’re in states so red that they’ll probably remain in Republican no matter who runs in the general election
.
1. Jon Kyl of Arizona (Will probably win if he chooses to run in 2012. Even if he doesn’t, the state seems reliably Republican unless the border issue goes away. Like that’s going to happen.)
2. Richard Lugar of Indiana (Got 87% of the vote in 2006. A lock for reelection.)
3. Olympia Snowe of Maine (Got 73% of the vote in 2006. A lock for reelection, but conservatives say she’s not much different than a Democrat. She did hold the line against Obama on most issues, though.)
4. Scott Brown of Massachusetts (Swimming uphill as a Republican in Massachusetts, but seems popular and should retain his seat.)
5. Roger Wicker of Mississippi (One would assume a Republican seat in Mississippi would be safe. No reason to think it won’t be.)
6. John Ensign of Nevada (Will probably have trouble getting out of the Republican primary, but whoever wins will probably win the general election in Nevada)
7. Bob Corker of Tennessee (First termer who narrowly won election in 2006. Tennessee if getting redder, so whoever wins the Republican nomination should hold onto the seat.)
8. Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas (probably faces a primary challenge, but Texas is about as reliably Republican as a state can get)
9. Orrin Hatch of Utah (same boat as Hutchison)
10. John Barasso of Wyoming (Won a special election in 2008 and there’s no reason to think a Republican will lose in Wyoming anytime soon.)
Quibble away, if you wish. Tell us where you think we’re full of it and where we’re wrong. But it seems clear to the braintrust (such as it is) here at IHateTheMedia.com that Republicans probably can’t wait until 2012.
Of course, we would have said the same thing about Democrats 24 months ago.
H/T: Wikipedia.org
